Who, What, How, Why, At What Cost and At What Risk?
(Is It Deja Vu All Over Again? Part V)
SUMMARY
We briefly review the years after the first AI winter and arrive at the present time in AI history. During the intervening years, computing technology has had a noticeable impact on how we do things and how productive we have become as a result. AI on the other hand, has seen repeated periods of ups and downs and the recurrence of intervening “AI Winters”, after each attempted rebirth. We now focus our attention on the latest emergence of interest in AI, which began perhaps around 2005, and ask again “is it really different this time?”. We will be contemplating questions such as who, what, why, how, at what cost, and at what risk?
The Latest Emergence of Interest in AI
By way of introduction and to provide a background for our discussion, we have reviewed in posts I – IV some of the history relevant to the birth and early years of AI. We have seen that it emerged as an application of modern digital computer technology which dates from the WWII years, in the 1940s, and was officially born in 1956. Without wishing to spend much more time on a review of its early history, we shall consider it sufficient, at this time, to simply fast-forward from the first AI Winter (1974) to the present.
Suffice it to say that in the years following the advent of AI in 1956 to the withdrawal of funding in 1974, there have been successive periods of emergence of the AI Phoenix from the ashes, only to end in failure to meet expectations, and the withdrawal of funding each time. In these intervening years, AI has repeatedly emerged and declined, at intervals of something like a decade more or less until the present time.
The latest re-emergence of interest in AI began in about 2005, probably as a result of significantly increased computer power, and access to very large data sets which could be used to train neural networks. Related to this new period of activity in AI, we want to pursue questions broadly related to who, what, how, why, at what cost, and at what risk, in order to provide a context for understanding this latest flurry of interest in AI and its implications for the future.
Is It Really Different This Time, and What About the Future?
Perhaps above all, the question remains, is this time going to be different, or are we simply encountering “deja vu all over again”, in the famous words of Yogi Berra? If this time is different, as it surely appears that it will be, then we’ll want to investigate the ways in which it is different, in some detail, so that we may form rational expectations and acquire a basic understanding of what is being done, by whom, and why, in what ways, and how does the world judge or interpret the obvious claims and pronouncements which are flowing forth from our media on a daily basis.
Yes, the technology related to what is being called AI can and will influence your lives in some way, for better or worse. It seems imperative, therefore, to have some basis for understanding what it’s really all about and how to place the daily “hype” into a context from which we can reasonably understand the implications and the expectations that might be credibly drawn from what we are being told.
The task before us is a large, but important one. If you are a young person, you may be considering devoting your studies and perhaps your life to working in AI. I know that many of you today are in that category. Today, as in times past, there are numerous job opportunities to be found in AI, and it will be important to understand as much as you can before making a commitment of this magnitude. Your future success or failure may depend on the enlightened choice you will make.
Even if you are not contemplating a career in AI, you are surely aware that there can be future implications for anyone working in a new environment in which a machine of one kind or another may simply take your place, possibly leaving you to find an alternate means of subsistence. However, do not assume that the machine will simply replace you. Yes, robots have replaced some welders on automobile assembly lines, but they have not yet fully replaced the welder in the field where the pipeline is being built, or the next skyscraper is going to stand. Can that change? Of course it can, but that doesn’t mean that another opportunity won’t take its place.
In my time, for example, I have seen armies of skilled draftsmen replaced by computer programs (Computer Aided Design, CAD) that can render essentially perfect drawings or designs for just about any commercial purpose. In this case, the jobs were not necessarily lost, but new skills had to be acquired in order to use the programs that made the work much easier and more efficient.
Secretaries and typists have seen their work load diminish and their work become much more efficient with the advent of sophisticated word processing programs. The typist is still needed, but new skills had to be acquired to use the new more efficient programs. The result in all cases has been increased productivity, and that fact alone can have an impact on the number of people required to do the same job. On the other hand, voice controlled technologies are now on the horizon, and the future in this area will probably be changing again in the not-too-distant future.
We can make similar comments about accounting as a profession, as the work becomes more and more computerized. Even today, accounting often requires getting the right data into the right place in the computer program that computes taxes, benefits, etc. It is these programs that are regularly updated to reflect changes in laws and accounting procedures, saving a vast amount of work on the part of the accountant and making him/her more productive. In the best case, the new technology may well open new doors of opportunity for us, allowing us to do much more than was possible before.
The pace of technological change is certainly accelerating, but the change itself it not new, our history is full of these stories going all the way back to the age of the first stone tool makers, the development of agriculture, the development of metal smithing, advances in ceramic technologies for pottery making, and so on, leading up to the most recent industrial revolutions. And the pace has been accelerating more rapidly as we progress into the future The future today holds untold possibilities in technologies like 3D printing, robotics, biotechnologies of many kinds, computer-based technologies, including what is being called AI, and so the list goes on.
We shall begin this new part of our ongoing episode (Is it Deja Vu All Over Again?) with the questions cited in our header, namely, but without much further clarification, who, what, how, why, at what cost, and at what risk, and much more, as we delve into the current world of AI and begin to develop a working understanding of what it is really about in its latest emergence on center stage, and the possible implications for the future. Is it really different this time?
What’s Next?
We will begin our inquiry with the next post in this series, which will appear shortly and in which we begin to answer some of the questions prompted by our heading. In the end, perhaps we can successfully give meaningful insight into the question “is it deja vu all over again?”, and perhaps we’ll even cast some light on the fate of humanity when confronted with the proverbial monster, AI.
We hope you’ll stay tuned as we start the latest episode, or chapter, in our original quest for insight into AI, the “monster that ate humanity”. We’ll look forward to seeing you again soon!